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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement wins the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the biggest shock.

However the current race is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and recent strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive vision. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the building with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's case comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still