A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
