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PHEVs produce nearly 5x more global warming emissions than official data indicate, according to a recent report.

Widening Gap Between Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Statistics reveals that PHEVs release just one-fifth less CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel cars, based on analysis conducted by a non-profit organization. That differs significantly with laboratory estimates, which assumed a 75% reduction in emissions.

Analysts examined data from onboard energy use monitors of 800,000 cars sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They found that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were nearly five times greater than official estimates, up from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are rising, while official figures are decreasing,” said a senior researcher involved in the report. “That gap is growing and creates a significant problem. Consequently, PHEVs emit almost as heavily as petrol vehicles.”

Key Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of miles travelled in electric mode relative to total mileage. They found that only 27% of driving was completed in EV mode, whereas lab estimates assumed over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in EV mode, pollution levels were significantly higher than lab estimates. That occurred because electric motors were insufficiently powerful enough to function independently, resulting to combustion motors using gasoline for almost one-third of the travel covered in EV mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

Based on estimates, the underestimation of PHEV emissions allowed four major automaker companies to avoid more than €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by artificially simplifying adherence with European Union fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Additionally, drivers of PHEVs would pay about €500 more annually in running expenses than would be assumed under laboratory conditions.

“The bold statements that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV cars are obviously way off the mark,” stated a transport expert. “Buyers are being duped into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the planet and saving costs. Actually, PHEVs are little improved than regular gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ production, and operating expenses.”

Political Debate and Automotive Pressure

Hybrid cars have recently been brought again into political debates as carmakers have pressed the EU to relax CO₂ targets. A planned ban on sales of new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the automotive industry and resistance from EU countries with significant automotive manufacturing.

Several senior politicians have proposed PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” option to introduce in the legislation.

One independent energy policy expert, who was not involved with the research, called the report a “highly valuable addition” after a long period in which segments of the automotive industry claimed there was insufficient data to properly evaluate real-world emissions.

“The results show, without question, that the gap in official and actual PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ emissions is much, much greater than for petrol or diesel vehicles,” the expert said. “Any regulatory adjustments concerning PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and in the light of this evidence.”